Forecasting Methods Assignment Help Forecasting is an effective way by which organizations determine how to allocate the budget for their upcoming time period. The forecasting uses historical data to determine the direction for the future trends in the market. The investors of the company utilize forecasting for the purpose of identification of events that may affect the company. These events include sales expectation that may be increased or decreased by change in the price of the shares of company. Forecasting is quite effective in providing long term perspectives of operations to the firms. Our assignment help experts says that there are several methods used to forecast the market trends. These methods have some applications for the organization in estimating the future trends and analysis. Forecasting

Methods and their Applications There are several types of forecasting methods that can be used to improve decision making and efficiencies of the business. These forecasting methods depend on the nature of data and the level of accuracy that the business is looking for. Generally, most important business forecasting methods are regression analysis, moving average, Monte Carlo simulation and time series method. Regression analysis is a statistical forecasting method that is effective to predict the one variable on the basis of relationship with other variables. Regression analysis can be used to have strong relationship by calculation of coefficient of two variables. It is calculated in both manually and with the help of software. For example, if a company wants to predict daily sales on the basis of daily website visitors, the number of daily website is x variable and the number of daily sales is y variable. To calculated regression analysis, y variable is dependent of the x variable. It is only two variables based regression analysis, but if there were more than two or multiple variables, it would be considered as multiple regression analysis. At the same time, moving average is another forecasting method which is especially useful for the organization. This method is quite effective for businesses to make prediction in industries that consider vastly changing situations. Moving average is a common approach that takes the previous months and week’s data for the purpose of forecasting upcoming weeks and months. The moving average can be calculated on the basis of monthly or quarterly as well. Along with this, Delphi technique is also an effective forecasting method that can be used for reliable and creative investigation of thoughts or the production of appropriate data for decision making process.

 

This method is based on the structured process and purifying knowledge that is obtained from a group of experts. They provide several opinion feedbacks concerning with a series of questionnaires. It is a collective result of group decisions that is completed, when a group of experts give their opinions on a particular subject matter and then a group judgment comes out. In this method, experts rely on their own intuition and expert opinion and full scientific knowledge. Apart from this our business forecasting case study assignment help experts says that, Delphi technique generates forecasts in technology, education, and other fields. It is a process by which few questions are answered, when seeking an answer for one single-dimension question. It would be better for the organizational success by answering some questions such as decision on what kind of group communications process is attractive regarding exploration of the problem at the time. The experts are determined, who have capability to solve the desirable problems and where they are located. Seasonal forecasting methods are very effective for those organizations, which are operated on seasonal basis. It is more effective method that is greatly taken into consideration in retail companies and schools Izzane. In retail organizations, the change in seasons effectively contributes in the organizational revenues. Seasonal forecasting methods are also depended on the change in the seasons such as increasing cold and increased heat in the weather. At the same time, Monte Carlo simulation is also an effective forecasting method that considers probabilities based on the historical data. The businesses generate a variety of probabilities of each occurrence and then simulate these occurrences to determine most likely happen. Businesses repeat the results of this method typically and record them in the random manner of the selected variable. This method relies on the repeated computations that are most efficient to use a computer and software. With the help of computer and software, simulation can be calculated automatically with the accuracy and speedily. Finally, time-series methods are used to predict the future performance with the help of historical data. This method of forecasting uses historical values to predict an outcome to the company.

 

These historical values are concerned with the time series that have equal space between two time periods. This method is a combination of a pattern and considers some random error, but it is quite effective to separate the pattern from the error through understanding of trend of pattern. The demand of consumers is fluctuated by seasonal factors such as long term increase and decrease. Conclusion It can be concluded that forecasting is an effective way of determining the future trends of demands. There are several methods used to evaluate the future performance of the organization such as Delphi technique, regression analysis, moving average, Monte Carlo simulation, time series and seasonal methods. All these methods are quite important for the companies that want to predict future demand of the consumers and want to take some business decisions that affect performance of the company. Get business forecasting methods assignment help with assignmenthelpexperts.com We are the best and experienced business assignment writing experts who have many years experience of proving assignment help to the students of US,UK and Australia.  We always provide the original assignment help with very reasonable prices. If you looking for best and original assignment help then you can contacts us at info@www.assignmenthelpexperts.com